1Department of Medicine, Division of Digestive Diseases, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
2Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
3Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA
4Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
5Department of Surgery, Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
6Emory Winship Cancer Institute, Department of Hematology and Medical Oncology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
Copyright © 2022 Korean Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors have no potential conflicts of interest.
Funding
This work was supported by a development grant from the Department of Medicine at Emory University School of Medicine. This work was also supported by grant P30CA138292 from the Biostatistics and Bioinformatics Shared Resource of Winship Cancer Institute of Emory University and NIH/NCI. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to acknowledge Sarah Cristofaro and Dr. Ambreen Merchant for their invaluable assistance in study coordination.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization: AMG, ZC, SF, SK, NFS, BLR, QC, EFW; Data curation: TVPH, ZS; Formal analysis: TVPH, ZS, ZC, FFW; Supervision: FFW; Validation: TVPH, ZS, ZC, FFW; Visualization: TVPH, ZS; Writing-original draft: TVPH, ZS, AMG, FFW; Writing-review & editing: TVPH, ZS, ZC, VP, SC, SF, SK, NFS, BER, QC, FFW.
Cancer location | AAPC (95% CI) |
Trend 1 |
Trend 2 |
Trend 3 |
Trend 4 |
Trend 5 |
Trend 6 |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | APC (95% CI) | Year | APC (95% CI) | Year | APC (95% CI) | Year | APC (95% CI) | Year | APC (95% CI) | Year | APC (95% CI) | ||
Esophagus (adenocarcinoma) | 5.11a) (4.66 to 5.56) | 1973–1992 | 9.16a) (8.47 to 9.84) | 1992–2004 | 4.15a) (3.05 to 5.25) | 2004–2017 | 0.32 (–0.33 to 0.97) | ||||||
Melanoma of the skin | 3.07a) (2.75 to 3.39) | 1973–1981 | 6.03a) (4.40 to 7.70) | 1981–2005 | 2.90a) (2.69 to 3.10) | 2005–2017 | 1.49a) (1.12 to 1.86) | ||||||
Liver & intrahepatic bile duct | 2.83a) (2.17 to 3.50) | 1973–1984 | 1.01 (–0.01 to 2.04) | 1984–1998 | 4.80a) (4.21 to 5.39) | 1998–2001 | 0.46 (–7.51 to 9.12) | 2001–2011 | 4.35a) (3.68 to 5.03) | 2011–2017 | 0.39 (–0.59 to 1.38) | ||
Kidney & renal pelvis | 1.81a) (1.29 to 2.33) | 1973–1994 | 2.18a) (1.95 to 2.42) | 1994–1997 | –0.53 (–7.43 to 6.90) | 1997–2007 | 3.32a) (2.72 to 3.91) | 2007–2017 | 0.26 (–0.15 to 0.67) | ||||
Prostate | 0.99 (–0.08 to 2.08) | 1973–1988 | 2.70a) (1.91 to 3.50) | 1988–1992 | 17.40a) (10.39 to 24.86) | 1992–1995 | –8.4 (–18.02 to 2.35) | 1995–2008 | 0.26 (–0.38 to 0.91) | 2008–2014 | –7.77a) (–10.01 to –5.48) | 2014–2017 | 3.63 (–2.00 to 9.59) |
Breast | 0.43a) (0.03 to 0.83) | 1973–1980 | –0.53 (–1.59 to 0.54) | 1980–1987 | 3.96a) (2.77 to 5.17) | 1987–1994 | –0.31 (–1.31 to 0.71) | 1994–1999 | 1.57 (–0.19 to 3.36) | 1999–2004 | –2.40a) (–4.05 to –0.72) | 2004–2017 | 0.15 (–0.12 to 0.42) |
Bladder | 0.07 (–0.08 to 0.22) | 1973–1981 | 1.16a) (0.48 to 1.85) | 1981–2007 | 0.23a) (0.14 to 0.33) | 2007–2017 | –1.20a)(–1.53 to –0.87) | ||||||
Pancreas | 0.14 (–0.19 to 0.47) | 1973–1978 | –1.55a) (–2.92 to –0.16) | 1978–1984 | 1.17(–0.11 to 2.47) | 1984–1989 | –1.39 (–3.04 to 0.29) | 1989–2000 | –0.05 (0.45 to 0.35) | 2000–2008 | 1.56a) (0.95 to 2.18) | 2008–2017 | 0.24 (–0.13 to 0.61) |
Lung & bronchus | 0 (–0.12 to 0.12) | 1973–1981 | 2.96a) (2.52 to 3.41) | 1981–1991 | 1.00a) (0.70 to 1.30) | 1991–2007 | –0.70a) (–0.82 to –0.57) | 2007–2017 | –2.19a) (–2.41 to –1.97) | ||||
Colon & rectum | –1.08a) (–1.43 to –0.72) | 1973–1985 | 0.88a) (0.64 to 1.13) | 1985–1995 | –1.83a)(–2.16 to –1.51) | 1995–1998 | 1.48 (–2.04 to 5.13) | 1998–2008 | –2.30a) (–2.61 to –1.99) | 2008–2011 | –4.56a) (–7.98 to –1.01) | 2011–2017 | –1.12a) (–1.74 to –0.50) |
Stomach | –1.52a) (–1.58 to –1.46) | 1973–2017 | –1.52a) (–1.58 to –1.46) | ||||||||||
Esophagus (squamous cell carcinoma) | –2.13a) (–2.53 to –1.74) | 1973–1986 | –0.43 (–1.04 to 0.19) | 1986–2012 | –3.28a) (–3.52 to –3.05) | 2012–2017 | –0.51 (–3.53 to 2.60) | ||||||
Cervix | –2.19a) (–2.54 to –1.83) | 1973–1982 | –4.75a) (–5.60 to –3.90) | 1982–1990 | –0.17 (–1.46 to 1.13) | 1990–2006 | –2.79a) (–3.20 to –2.38) | 2006–2017 | –0.62 (–1.32 to 0.09) |
APC and AAPC are presented as percentage.
Each trend segment was based on Joinpoint analyses. Incidence rates were per 100,000 and were age-adjusted to the 2000 standard population.
AAPC, average annual percent change; APC, annual percent change; CI, confidence interval.
a)APC or AAPC significantly differed from 0 (p<0.05).
Cancer location | AAPC (95% CI) | Trend 1 |
Trend 2 |
Trend 3 |
Trend 4 |
Trend 5 |
Trend 6 |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | APC (95% CI) | Year | APC (95% CI) | Year | APC (95% CI) | Year | APC (95% CI) | Year | APC (95% CI) | Year | APC (95% CI) | ||
Esophagus (adenocarcinoma) | 5.11 |
1973–1992 | 9.16 |
1992–2004 | 4.15 |
2004–2017 | 0.32 (–0.33 to 0.97) | ||||||
Melanoma of the skin | 3.07 |
1973–1981 | 6.03 |
1981–2005 | 2.90 |
2005–2017 | 1.49 |
||||||
Liver & intrahepatic bile duct | 2.83 |
1973–1984 | 1.01 (–0.01 to 2.04) | 1984–1998 | 4.80 |
1998–2001 | 0.46 (–7.51 to 9.12) | 2001–2011 | 4.35 |
2011–2017 | 0.39 (–0.59 to 1.38) | ||
Kidney & renal pelvis | 1.81 |
1973–1994 | 2.18 |
1994–1997 | –0.53 (–7.43 to 6.90) | 1997–2007 | 3.32 |
2007–2017 | 0.26 (–0.15 to 0.67) | ||||
Prostate | 0.99 (–0.08 to 2.08) | 1973–1988 | 2.70 |
1988–1992 | 17.40 |
1992–1995 | –8.4 (–18.02 to 2.35) | 1995–2008 | 0.26 (–0.38 to 0.91) | 2008–2014 | –7.77 |
2014–2017 | 3.63 (–2.00 to 9.59) |
Breast | 0.43 |
1973–1980 | –0.53 (–1.59 to 0.54) | 1980–1987 | 3.96 |
1987–1994 | –0.31 (–1.31 to 0.71) | 1994–1999 | 1.57 (–0.19 to 3.36) | 1999–2004 | –2.40 |
2004–2017 | 0.15 (–0.12 to 0.42) |
Bladder | 0.07 (–0.08 to 0.22) | 1973–1981 | 1.16 |
1981–2007 | 0.23 |
2007–2017 | –1.20 |
||||||
Pancreas | 0.14 (–0.19 to 0.47) | 1973–1978 | –1.55 |
1978–1984 | 1.17(–0.11 to 2.47) | 1984–1989 | –1.39 (–3.04 to 0.29) | 1989–2000 | –0.05 (0.45 to 0.35) | 2000–2008 | 1.56 |
2008–2017 | 0.24 (–0.13 to 0.61) |
Lung & bronchus | 0 (–0.12 to 0.12) | 1973–1981 | 2.96 |
1981–1991 | 1.00 |
1991–2007 | –0.70 |
2007–2017 | –2.19 |
||||
Colon & rectum | –1.08 |
1973–1985 | 0.88 |
1985–1995 | –1.83 |
1995–1998 | 1.48 (–2.04 to 5.13) | 1998–2008 | –2.30 |
2008–2011 | –4.56 |
2011–2017 | –1.12 |
Stomach | –1.52 |
1973–2017 | –1.52 |
||||||||||
Esophagus (squamous cell carcinoma) | –2.13 |
1973–1986 | –0.43 (–1.04 to 0.19) | 1986–2012 | –3.28 |
2012–2017 | –0.51 (–3.53 to 2.60) | ||||||
Cervix | –2.19 |
1973–1982 | –4.75 |
1982–1990 | –0.17 (–1.46 to 1.13) | 1990–2006 | –2.79 |
2006–2017 | –0.62 (–1.32 to 0.09) |
APC and AAPC are presented as percentage.
Each trend segment was based on Joinpoint analyses. Incidence rates were per 100,000 and were age-adjusted to the 2000 standard population.
AAPC, average annual percent change; APC, annual percent change; CI, confidence interval.
a)APC or AAPC significantly differed from 0 (p<0.05).
APC and AAPC are presented as percentage. Each trend segment was based on Joinpoint analyses. Incidence rates were per 100,000 and were age-adjusted to the 2000 standard population. AAPC, average annual percent change; APC, annual percent change; CI, confidence interval. APC or AAPC significantly differed from 0 (